Flaws in my thinking
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Flaws in human thinking have always interested me and this made reading Taleb's book even more interesting(Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb).
Well, try a simple test...
Suppose exam results have not yet been declared and there are exactly two possiblities, you might either get hundred - probability 50% , or a zero - probability 50%.
Thus your expected result = 50.
Till the results are declared, you should be in the same mental state as the guy expecting 50.
But that's humanly not possible, you'll be swinging between the ecstacy of a ton and the morbid fear of a wipe-out.
(especially with the babas around this is a real possibility :-)).
Flaws in human thinking have always interested me and this made reading Taleb's book even more interesting(Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb).
Well, try a simple test...
Suppose exam results have not yet been declared and there are exactly two possiblities, you might either get hundred - probability 50% , or a zero - probability 50%.
Thus your expected result = 50.
Till the results are declared, you should be in the same mental state as the guy expecting 50.
But that's humanly not possible, you'll be swinging between the ecstacy of a ton and the morbid fear of a wipe-out.
(especially with the babas around this is a real possibility :-)).
posted by Ayan Bhattacharya @ 9:05 AM
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